"Invermere real estate market analysis: Sales up 13.17% YTD despite mixed signals. Active listings down 17.91%. Potential buying opportunities this fall and winter."
However, September felt slow to me personally, but the numbers tell a different story. This September from Canal Flats to Spillimacheen, there were 40 sales, which is up 14.29% from the 35 sales in September 2023.Building on this trend, year to date we are at 421 sales, which is up 13.17% from the 372 sales for the same period last year, and up 5.78% from the 398 sales for the same period in 2023. Of course, this is nothing compared to the record-breaking 742 sales between January 1st and September 30th in 2021, but that was a different time!
Meanwhile, here's another puzzling stat: there were 69 new listings this September compared to 51 last year, a 35.29% increase, but on the ground, it didn't feel like there were a lot of new listings.
What does track with my on-the-ground experience is that active inventory is down: 385 active listings at the end of September, down 17.91% from this time last year (when there were 469 listings).
But here's where things get weird. On the surface, what makes no sense with higher sales volume and lower active listings is that days on the market are... UP! This is counter-intuitive!I had this theory last month that we were seeing older listings sell, and that as these properties sold, the days on market would start to decrease. But so far in September, this has not happened (or the older inventory is still being absorbed).
Average days on market for September is 124, up 21.58% from last year. Similarly, year to date we are at 102, which is up 13.13% from the same time period last year.Price trends are equally mixed.
For September, percentage of sale price to list price is down slightly at 92.65% compared to 94.40% last year. When you combine this with a number of listings selling after a price reduction (which isn't factored into this percentage), it suggests some softness on prices. Prices are definitely not going up. In some categories like apartment-style resort condos and townhouses, prices may actually be down from last year or the year before.
However, year to date we are looking at a sale price to list price ratio of 94.36%, which is practically identical to 2024. Additionally, the average price sold year to date in 2025 is $542,768, which is up just slightly from 2024, but is up 15.73% from 2023.What a mixed up bunch of data!
The challenge with averages is they can be misleading , several high-priced lakefront homes can skew an average.
When I really dig into the numbers, several of the theories that I have prove not to be as pronounced as I would have guessed. For example, it feels like more of the sales are single family homes vs. attached/condo/townhouse sales, but the actual percentage of sales of attached properties is around 43% for both 2025 & 2024, still fairly consistent. Of course, this doesn't break out the different types of condo properties, like more residential full living units in Radium vs. resort/recreational style ones in Invermere and Panorama.
Here's another assumption I had to fact-check: It feels to me like most of the buyer demand is for homes under $900,000 and that property listed over $1 million is quiet. But when I checked this, so far year to date there have been 40 sales or 9.5% of the total sales for property over $1 million (and some of these have been very expensive lakefront properties). In contrast, for the same period last year, there were 38 sales or 10.21% of the total sales for properties over $1 million. I thought the percentage of sales over $1 million would have dropped more.
So what does it all mean? I think the roller coaster will continue, periods of busy and periods of slow. Furthermore, fears and uncertainty around the economy, interest rates, and what the heck is happening in the United States will continue to play a role in people's decisions to buy or sell. As a result, in the short term, I do not think we will see a lot of new listings this fall, so inventory will tighten.
The big question mark is whether buyer demand stays consistent, decreases, or increases.
My prediction for the short term: demand this fall and winter will stay consistent, which really means inconsistent. More specifically, well-priced single family homes, lake access properties, and small acreages or reasonably priced building lots with no restrictions will continue to sell. However, other types of properties including Panorama condos, building lots with restrictions, and properties with no lake access listed over a million will likely sit on the market and are much less likely to sell unless priced very aggressively and are in very good condition.
But where there is a build up inventory and weak demand, like Panorama condos, there could be some good opportunities to buy. There will be a certain percentage of sellers who really want or need to sell. Going against the grain and looking at what other people are not looking at could be a smart move.
Looking ahead, likely in the spring of 2026, we will see a number of new listings, I wouldn't be surprised to see inventory explode. The uncertain part, where my crystal ball gets fuzzy, is how hot the demand and the market will be at that time.
Taking a bigger-picture view, considering the cost of construction (with labour and materials) and the lack of supply in the area, including the very limited new development, combined with the reality that this is an amazing place to live, to raise a family, to retire, and to recreate, plus the fact that a lot of people don't want to be in cities or suburbs, I do not see a situation where prices here will crash. Things can be soft, prices could dip, demand can be weak, but I don’t see a crash coming.
There hasn't been a lot of new supply created, and there is effectively no speculation. People have bought because they want to be here. In my opinion, it would take a major crash everywhere for it to impact pricing here. And typically this area is slow to react from trends elsewhere. But if you are banking on a crash, I would buy some lottery tickets as well. Maybe you will get lucky, one way or another. But I am not betting on it!
On the contrary, I think the risk of missing out on some good opportunities is actually higher than the risk of overpaying because of some looming real estate crash. Additionally, this fall and winter could actually present some opportunities, there are not a lot of highly motivated sellers in this market, but occasionally there will be. And seasonally, the best deals can often be found in the dead of winter when sellers have given up hope of selling until the spring. If you are organized, know the market, and are ready, there can be some great buying opportunities before the spring comes.