Sales Plunge 41%: Market Hits a Standoff

For January 2026, we saw only 20 sales (valley wide) compared to 34 in 2025.

New listings are also down 39.74% (47 this year compared to 78 in 2025).

These numbers confirm what I am feeling on the ground, and they are related. The lack of exciting new listings (many of the 'new' listings are actually re-lists of property that didn't sell in 2025) is having a direct impact on sales.It is hard to get people excited when there isn't a lot of new selection or anything in their price point to show them. Additionally, a number of buyers I am working with have specific criteria, whether it is lakefront, an acreage, or a specific price point or location.

Beyond the lack of fresh inventory, several other factors are at play.

First and foremost, things are still very uncertain. Whether it is the overall economy, interest rates, tariffs, whatever the heck is happening in the United States, the world feels very uncertain right now, and this can cause buyers and sellers to freeze and hold tight (at least for a period of time).

However, going into February, we are starting to see a ramp up of new listings. What is to be determined, and what I am not sure about: when there is more selection, how strong will the buyer demand be?

This uncertainty feeds into the other challenge, and what potentially could be a theme for 2026: a bit of a standoff between sellers and buyers.

Typically in and around Invermere, a lot of the sellers are either older (with no mortgage and a lot of emotional connection), or second homeowners (with no mortgage and a lot of emotional connection), or full-time owners who are upgrading (with a mortgage and tight margins on upgrading). The end result: it is very rare to see sellers who are extremely motivated and who will be quick to move on pricing.

It is uncommon to see a seller who is under financial pressure to sell or who has to sell because of a job transfer.
On the buyer side, a lot of the buyers do not have a lot of urgency either. If they are buying a cabin, that is a very optional purchase. Even a big move, like retiring and moving to the area, is often a choice that can be made with flexible timing (or if things don't work out, may never happen).

Compared to other markets and larger centres, I think we have a lot more buyers and sellers who are only "potentially" buyers or sellers. There are not very many urgent situations where people HAVE to buy or sell.

As a result, what this can mean in a shifting market is that things may shift more slowly compared to other areas.

My crystal ball is fuzzy! Unfortunately, I don't know what is going to happen next…

At this moment in time, it feels like there are sellers who are trying to continue to push prices up or are not being realistic about pricing. At the same time, it feels like there are not that many serious buyers. The ones that are out there are looking for better value and are not willing to pay a premium.

In the past, when there has been a stalemate or a standoff between buyers and sellers, it is often only time, mood, emotions, weather, and macro-economics that shift the market in a certain direction and decide who is going to "win".
And for the last number of years, it has more often than not been sellers who have won, with many holding out long enough to get their price. But I am not convinced that this trend will continue in 2026.
We might just be in a bit of a shift.

So what does this mean for you? Well, it might sound a bit harsh, but my message to sellers and the key to selling in a potentially slower market in 2026 is: "DON'T BE GREEDY".

And for buyers, there could be some more negotiating power, but that will only go so far. Some sellers will simply not sell and will wait things out compared to taking a loss or going too far down on pricing.

Looking ahead, in the short term, I think the activity around the February family day weekend and the second half of February will be an interesting insight and foreshadowing into how active of a spring market we may have.

And as much as things could feel a certain way for a certain period of time, mood and activity could shift and change. It also wouldn't shock me if things feel a lot different by the summer or the fall.