Bring the Power BACK!!! Aug Update

Sales this July were down 22.81% compared to last July, dropping from 57 sales to 44. That makes this the slowest July since 2019, when there were 45. Even July of 2020, when the world was still pretty uncertain and the wild volume of 2021 and 2022 hadn't started yet, saw 79 sales.

Year to date we are at 279 sales, compared to 335 over the same period last year, which puts us down 16.72%. You have to go back to 2018, 2019, and 2020 to find volume around this number. At the peak, January to July of 2021 saw 609 sales.

Last month I talked about two markets, recreational and local, and that split continues. Lakefront and lake access property (private beach, marina slip, and the like) is scarce and in strong demand. These are generally confident cash buyers competing for something rare, so prices are high and sales are instant.

Lower priced single family homes and condos, on the other hand, are sitting. It's especially tough in Radium and Fairmont, but the slowdown reaches even the core of Invermere.

April and May had activity and sales. June still felt like there was some momentum, with inquiries and showings. July, frankly, felt like someone turned off the phone and the email. There are always exceptions, and some of the sales that did happen came with multiple offers or unconditional offers. Alongside the pent-up demand for lakefront, there is very little acreage near Invermere (the Toby Benches, for example), and a few categories of property still see very strong demand simply because supply is so thin.

In past years, new listings would dry up through July and August, and as existing inventory sold, the total pool of available property would shrink. That has not happened this year. There were 90 new listings added in July, close to last year's 93 and right in line with the five year average of 88. At the end of July there were 459 active listings, consistent with last year and bang on the five year average, which is also 459.Average days on market (how long it takes a property to sell) was 84 this July. Compared to last July's 131 days that looks like a huge improvement, but 131 was an outlier. The five year average is 86, and year to date we are sitting at 91.What that number really tells me is that most of the sales happening are new listings, while a lot of the older listings simply are not selling. It has always been true that your best chance of selling comes in the first two weeks on the market, but that seems to be even more the case this year.

The average ratio of selling price to list price year to date is 94.73%, very consistent with 2023 through 2025 and right around the five year average for July. In plain terms, sellers are not moving dramatically below their asking price. Some buyers have tried writing offers well below list (more than 10% under, in a few cases), but the reality is that most sellers will trim their price and slowly test the market before they will accept a very low offer.

As I have mentioned before, many sellers carry no mortgage and do not have to sell. They will wait things out, and they tend to be very slow to adjust their expectations and drop their price.

Moving to a new community or buying a recreational property are choices. These are rarely things a person has to do.

When world and U.S. politics are a constant roller coaster, when the stock market is too, when there's uncertainty over interest rates, and when banks and lenders keep getting tougher, it is no shock that a lot of people are pausing on any big move. That's especially true if budgets are tight and there isn't much extra money, or much confidence in the economy or job security.

Then there's affordability. A basic condo runs between $350k and $450k, and a more modern single family home, depending on condition and location, runs between $700,000 and $900,000. Property here is not cheap.

Add to that the increased regulation and uncertainty around short term rentals, a category already less 'sexy' with buyers than it was in 2021 or 2022.Meanwhile, people with significant net worth and strong income (many of them likely in the oil and gas world) are making confident moves for scarce lake access property. There have been local moves too, some people upgrading and some downsizing. Even within the recreational market, a few owners have traded up, buying a bigger or better lake access property and selling their existing one.

What's interesting is that the people who are already here, who are invested and own property, generally are not panicking or overly worried. But the newcomers who haven't bought or moved to the area yet seem to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting.

Are they waiting for prices to come down? For interest rates to drop? To see what on earth happens in the world? To watch other buyers jump in and the selection get thinner? I'd say yes to all of it. No one wants to be the first one to dance, and it can be scary to jump in when other people aren't.

For the rest of 2026, I think we see more of the same. I suspect August and September sales numbers will continue to run below 2025. We'll likely get some new listings through those months as well, with some owners worried that things might get worse and trying to sell now.

Slower sales combined with more listings will probably keep some half serious buyers from feeling any urgency, leaving them a bit overwhelmed by all the choices.

Zooming out, Invermere and the Columbia Valley is an amazing place to live and recreate. The natural beauty, the recreation, and the community feel are all special. The climate beats a lot of places, and so do the crime and social conditions. I still believe there are plenty of people who don't want to spend their 60s, 70s, and 80s in a suburb in the Fraser Valley or southern Alberta. And there are a lot of younger people who work remotely and can live literally anywhere. This is a great place to raise kids.

New construction is so expensive. Labour, materials, and increased code requirements don't seem to be easing, so I don't see building costs coming down. That hits older homes too. Buyers are scared of the cost and hassle of a major renovation, which can drag down the value of those properties and shrink the pool of interested buyers.

I don't see a massive local price correction. Some sought after categories could even keep climbing. But for mid-priced property with no lake access, selling in the short term is going to mean being more aggressive on price. I think we're at the point where prices soften compared to spring of 2026 or fall of 2025. That's not great news for sellers, but compared to other parts of Canada that saw significant drops in 2022 and 2023 while our area kept slowly climbing, it could be a lot worse.

To be realistic, any dip will be slow. It does not mean buyers can suddenly low-ball their way to something 20% under asking. It will be shaped by the people who actually have to sell, and most of the truly desirable properties aren't in that group.